#Vmt hook class how to
#Vmt hook class series

“All of my life, as an American women, I’ve been equal in every place to men, but not anymore.” Taylor Greene was replying to a tweet by conservative Fox News host Tucker Carlson criticizing USA Today for naming Assistant Health Secretary Rachel Levine, who is transgender, one of its “Women of the Year.” “As a woman, I feel threatened because biological men are aggressively replacing women,” Taylor Greene wrote on Twitter.

Taylor Greene in a tweet on Tuesday referred to trans women as “biological men,” a term often used by anti-LGBTQ+ activists to imply that trans people are not who they say they are, according to the media advocacy group GLAAD. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) has said she feels threatened by transgender women, who she alleges are “aggressively replacing” cisgender women in some spaces. Source: NBER and author’s calculations.Ī story about the bigoted views of two really loathsome people: A probit regression has a McFadden R2 of 7%, with 18% correct calls for recessions using a 30% threshold.įigure 4: Implied probability of recession using 12 month trailing moving average of vehicle miles traveled, contemporaneously (green), and NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates (gray bar).

The VMT variable is a reasonable coincident indicator.

Once again, not a particularly good predictor of recessions as defined by the NBER. The proportion of correct calls on recessions is 16% (using again a 30% threshold). The McFadden R2 from this regression is 0.04. What if we use actual change in the 12 month trailing moving average (lagged one month)? Then we get this picture.įigure 3: Implied probability of recession using 12 month trailing moving average of vehicle miles traveled, lagged one month (sky blue), and NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates (gray bar). Regression output at end of post.Īs is obvious, there are many false calls, exactly because there are numerous occasions where the 12 month moving average of VMT declines without an accompanying NBER-defined recession (of course, one could define recessions in a way to make the VMT variable predict perfectly that would be to define recessions as the months after a decline in the 12 month moving average of VMT!) The proportion of correct calls on recessions is 48% (using a threshold of 30% for predicting a recession). The McFadden R2 from this regression is 0.11. Using a one lag probit model, with negative 12 month trailing moving average of VMT dummy as a predictor, I predict recessions thusly:įigure 1: Implied probability of recession using dummy variable taking on value of unity when 12 month trailing moving average of vehicle miles traveled is negative, lagged one month (pink), and NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates (gray bar). Source: DOT FHA via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations. This is plotted as blue bar in the graph below, with NBER defined recession dates shaded dark gray:įigure 1: Months when 12 month trailing moving average of VMT declines (blue bar), and NBER defined recession dates (dark gray bars). I think define a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 whenever this moving average term turns negative.

#Vmt hook class series

I take the not seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled series extending back to 1970 and define a 12 month moving average variable. This certificate can be used to market and promote your company's commitment to training and professionalism.But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession. Upon successful completion of all five modules, technicians receive a VMT Certificate of Completion.

VMT Module 5: HVAC Cleaning Equipment & Tools.

VMT Module 1: HVAC Ductwork and Access Openings.

The VMT program consists of five modules that cover the following topics:

#Vmt hook class how to

By eliminating the need for travel, the VMT program is also cost-effective.īest of all, the VMT program content is consistent with NADCA standards and guidelines, ensuring your technicians will learn how to do the job right. The VMT is delivered online, making it convenient for technicians who wish to work at their own pace. The Ventilation Maintenance Technician (VMT) Online Training program is designed to help new HVAC cleaning technicians develop the high quality of experience and skills for which NADCA members are known.